TickWise Australia

Mammalian Meat Allergy (MMA) predictor demonstration. The simulator combines Australian tick-exposure forecasting, personal bite history, delayed food-reaction patterns and Bayesian red-flag reasoning.

Australian geography MMA / alpha-gal simulation Bayesian reasoning shown Not diagnostic
Demonstration only.
The article that prompted this prototype concerned mammalian meat allergy after tick exposure in Australia. All probabilities, priors and likelihood ratios shown here are simulated placeholders for design testing.

Decision pathway

1
Tick encounter
Estimate near-term exposure from place, habitat, duration and protection.
2
Sensitisation
Assess whether bite history may increase the chance of alpha-gal sensitisation.
3
Delayed reaction
Match food exposure, timing and symptoms to the characteristic MMA pattern.
4
Action
Separate routine monitoring, specialist assessment and emergency action.
Tick encounter risk: next 72 hours
56%
Elevated
Simulated from NSW coastal tick-prone habitat and planned activity.
Sensitisation concern after bites
18%
Context-dependent
This is not the probability of developing MMA; it demonstrates how bite history changes concern.
Compatibility with MMA reaction pattern
3%
Low pattern match
No compatible delayed reaction has been selected.

Bayesian MMA pattern update

This panel shows how a transparent prior-to-posterior model could work. All values are placeholders and require clinical calibration.
Prior probability
3%
Combined evidence LR
1.0
Posterior probability
3%
EvidencePlaceholder LRInterpretation
No evidence selected1.0No update applied.
The model remains at the low default prior because no compatible reaction pattern is selected.

Key drivers

Recommended action

Emergency pathway

Severe breathing difficulty, throat or tongue swelling, fainting or collapse may indicate anaphylaxis. Use an adrenaline injector if prescribed and call 000 immediately.

Implementation status

Implemented
Australian location selection, tick-exposure forecast, bite-history assessment, delayed reaction workflow and Bayesian update.
Simulated
Regional tick activity, sensitisation coefficients, clinical prior probabilities and all likelihood ratios.
Future live version
Weather API, tick surveillance, validated MMA evidence tables, symptom diary, clinician summary and specialist referral support.
TickWise Australia is a design demonstration. It is not a diagnostic system, a substitute for allergy testing or a replacement for medical advice.