Drug Pricing & HTA Decision Simulator

Explore how clinical benefit, comparator choice, evidence uncertainty, eligible population, payer thresholds and commercial concessions affect a defensible price corridor and reimbursement outlook.

Synthetic demonstration model
Purpose: this demonstrator supports strategic exploration. It is not a validated HTA model, reimbursement submission or country-specific legal opinion. All outputs are synthetic and assumption-dependent.
Defensible list-price corridor
Modelled range after evidence and negotiation adjustments.
Probable negotiated net price
List price after mandatory discount and confidential rebate.
HTA acceptance probability
Indicative probability based on cost-effectiveness, uncertainty and budget impact.
Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio
Incremental treatment cost divided by incremental QALYs.
Year 1 net budget impact
Treated population × incremental net cost, after avoided costs.
Expected Year 1 net revenue
Net realised price × expected treated population.

Price–acceptance curve

Indicative reimbursement probability across alternative annual list prices.

Acceptance probability Current proposed price Defensible corridor

Country decision context

Market
Reference value threshold
Budget sensitivity
Negotiation pressure
Comparator adjustment
Evidence confidence factor

Value-driver sensitivity

Relative effect of each variable on the achievable price.

Scenario comparison

ScenarioNet priceHTA probabilityBudget impact

Decision interpretation