NileGuard: West Nile Red-Flag Predictor

A static demonstrator for seasonal neuroinfectious disease triage. It combines exposure context, symptom red flags, patient vulnerability, diagnostic prompts, and cognitive-bias checks. It is not a diagnostic device.

1. Public-facing risk checker

Designed to direct users toward appropriate care when mosquito exposure and neurological symptoms converge.

Complete the fields and calculate.

2. Clinician red-flag tool

A forcing function for adding West Nile neuroinvasive disease to the active differential.

Complete the fields and calculate.

3. Disambiguation flowchart: mosquito/tick-borne neuroinfectious syndromes

Acute febrile illness?
Fever, headache, myalgia, rash, vomiting, malaise.
Neurological involvement?
Meningitis, encephalitis, seizure, tremor, focal weakness, flaccid paralysis.
Vector + geography
Mosquito vs tick, season, travel, wetlands, woods, local surveillance.
Targeted differential
WNV, SLE, EEE, La Crosse, Jamestown Canyon, Powassan, Japanese encephalitis, dengue/chikungunya/Zika if travel.
SignalPushes reasoning towardComment
Older adult + summer mosquito exposure + encephalitis or flaccid weaknessWest Nile virusDominant North American arboviral neuroinvasive disease pattern.
Child/adolescent + wooded exposure + seizures/encephalitis in eastern/upper midwestern USLa Crosse virusPaediatric signal is important.
Severe encephalitis + high fatality concern + eastern/gulf-coast wetlandsEastern equine encephalitisRare but high consequence; threshold for escalation should be low.
Encephalitis in western/southern US or regions with SLE activitySt Louis encephalitisClinically overlaps with WNV; lab/public-health context matters.
Adult neuroinvasive disease + deer/woodland mosquito ecologyJamestown Canyon virusOften under-recognised; consider in northern regions.
Tick exposure + meningoencephalitis, especially Great Lakes/northeast US/CanadaPowassan virusTick-borne; should separate from mosquito-borne branch.
Recent travel to Asia/western Pacific + rural pig/wading-bird ecologyJapanese encephalitisTravel and vaccination history matter.

4. Testing logic

Prompt: serum WNV IgM; add CSF WNV IgM when neurological symptoms are present.

If testing occurs very early, a negative IgM result should not automatically close the diagnosis if clinical suspicion remains. Repeat or confirmatory testing may be needed depending on timing and flavivirus cross-reactivity.

5. Cognitive-bias guardrail

Premature closureAvailability biasAnchoring on influenzaBase-rate neglectGeographic unfamiliarity

Bias warning: neurological features move this beyond a routine viral syndrome.

6. Decision output

Product principle: the tool does not diagnose WNV. It raises a rare, severe, seasonally plausible diagnosis into the active differential.

Reference architecture

LayerInputsOutput
Exposure priorRegion, date, mosquito season, weather, mosquito pools, bird/equine signals, travelEstimated exposure plausibility
Clinical syndromeFever, headache, rash, GI symptoms, neurological signsFebrile / meningitic / encephalitic / paralytic phenotype
VulnerabilityAge, immune status, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseaseSeverity modifier
Diagnostic reasoningSyndrome + exposure + local surveillance + differential diagnosisRed-flag tier and testing prompt
Bias layerCompeting diagnosis, failure to consider vector disease, early negative testUnfamiliarity and premature-closure warning