TickWise: a public infected-tick risk forecast

A consumer-facing simulation showing how an infected-tick predictor could work for the general public. The concept combines short-range weather, historical tick patterns, public health surveillance, veterinary sentinel data, and citizen science reporting to estimate near-term risk and provide practical avoidance advice.

How to read this:
This is a simulation, not a live medical device. It demonstrates how a public app might translate weather, county baseline risk, dog sentinel signals, and user exposure context into a practical 24–72 hour warning.
41%
infected-tick risk
next 48 hours
Amber risk
Risk is above the local baseline because humidity, seasonal pattern, and county history are all supportive.
County baseline
Elevated
Belmont County has a relatively high recent Lyme signal and stronger infected-tick background risk.
Weather signal
Favourable
Warm, humid, low-wind conditions support questing activity.
Expected tick activity
High
Conditions suggest ticks are more likely to be active on vegetation edges and trails.
Infection pressure
Moderate
Estimated from historical prevalence, public surveillance, and animal sentinel data.
Your exposure
Moderate
Your route, time outdoors, and vegetation contact shape final encounter risk.
Action level
Check today
Repellent, stay central on trails, and do a full body check after return.

48-hour outlook

Why the app thinks risk is higher

What to do now

Data layers behind the forecast

Weather and microclimate
Short-range weather forecasts, humidity, temperature, wind, rainfall, and ground-level conditions from providers such as meteoblue.
Historical phenology and prevalence
Multi-year county and regional patterns showing when ticks are typically active and where infected tick prevalence has been higher.
Public and veterinary surveillance
Human case baselines, infected tick submissions, state surveillance, dog sentinel signals, and citizen science reports used to estimate infection pressure.
This simulation is designed as a public information tool. A live product would need local calibration, provenance display, data-refresh dates, accessibility support, and a clear distinction between consumer advice and clinical decision support.